Long Range Rain and ​Climate Outlook to February 2024

The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast lower than average rainfall for the east coast of Australia over the coming summer months. The possibility of high level water restrictions coming in to effect over the Summer is looming, that's why now is a great time to install a rain water tank and start collecting water for use in and around your home.

We've summarised the Bureau of Meteorology's long range climate forecast below to give you an overview of what to expect in terms of Summer rainfall, temperatures, sea temperature and weather patterns.

November 2023 to February 2024 long range weather forecast

As of November 2, 2023, please read a comprehensive long-range forecast overview for the climate outlook in Australia from November to February. Several factors are contributing to this forecast, including the active El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, as well as the record-warm oceans worldwide. Here's what you can expect:

Rainfall:

• November to January rainfall is anticipated to be below average across substantial portions of western, southern, and northern Australia.
• The chances of experiencing below-average rainfall are particularly high (ranging from 60% to greater than 80% likelihood) in most parts of northern, western, central, and southern Australia for November.
• The outlook for November to January suggests that rainfall is likely to be below the median (ranging from 60% to 80% likelihood) in the northern, western, and southern regions of the country.
• Historical data indicates that our long-range forecasts for above-median rainfall have been moderately accurate to highly accurate for most of Australia. However, accuracy diminishes to low to very low for areas in central Australia and those to the north of the Great Australian Bight.

Temperatures:

• From November to January, both maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average for almost all of Australia.
• There's at least a 2.5 X higher likelihood than normal of experiencing unusually high temperatures in most of Australia during this period, with a greater than 80% chance of this occurring.
• Specifically for November, above-median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than an 80% chance) in most of northern and western Australia.
• Maximum temperatures from November to January are very likely to be above median for most of Australia, except in the south-eastern mainland and Tasmania's west, where temperatures are likely (60% to 80% chance) to be above median.
• The chances of experiencing unusually high maximum temperatures are more than 2.5 times higher for most of Australia, with probabilities increasing to more than four times as likely for central and western Western Australia and some parts of northern Northern Territory.
• November is expected to bring above-median minimum temperatures, likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance), for most of Western Australia, western Northern Territory, south-eastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, and Tasmania.
• Below-median minimum temperatures are expected in areas of north-east Northern Territory, northern Queensland, and south-eastern South Australia.
• Over the November to January period, minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above median for most of Australia, except for areas in south-eastern South Australia and the central coasts of Queensland.
• Historically, the accuracy of long-range forecasts for above-median maximum temperatures has been high to very high across almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is generally high to very high for most of the country, but it decreases to low to very low for the northern Kimberley in Western Australia, central Northern Territory, and a small area in central Queensland.

Climate Influences:

• El Niño continues to exert its influence in the tropical Pacific, with central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures remaining above El Niño thresholds. Models indicate further warming is likely in the central to eastern Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining above El Niño thresholds into early southern hemisphere autumn 2024.
• A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is ongoing and is expected to persist into early December, typically leading to reduced spring rainfall in central and south-east Australia.
• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, currently positive, is forecasted to return to neutral this week.
• Australia has experienced a warming of approximately 1.48°C since 1910, resulting in more frequent extreme heat events.
• The Bureau's climate model, which accounts for climate change and natural climate drivers such as ENSO, IOD, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and SAM, utilises millions of observations from satellites and in-situ instrumentation to simulate atmospheric, oceanic, ice, and land surface processes in long-range forecasts. This enables us to provide accurate and informed climate outlooks.

Summary

In summary, the coming months are expected to bring below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures for most of Australia. These forecasts are driven by a combination of climate influences, including El Niño and the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Please stay updated with the latest information and take necessary precautions to cope with the expected climate conditions.

Source¹: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/